Lone Grove Tornado Sends Debris Far

An interesting presentation from the Tulsa National Weather Service Office:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tsa/weather-events/briefing_LoneGroveDebris/player.html

CHASE UPDATE - A lesson in the long range!

FYI, I'm a weekend chase warrior for the most part so I'm always optimistic for Saturdays and Sundays.

12z Friday runs show a cold front entering the eastern Gulf on Friday/Saturday. While I'd rather not see that happen, it does appear the trajectories into the southern Plains originate in the Caribbean.

Lee-side cyclogenesis is still progged for Sunday.

Of course all of this is 10 days away and SMILE (strict model interpretation, laughable or eventful) applies!

Update:

O.K. here's the same time as the image above from Monday's 12z run of the GFS. Notice the winds over the western Gulf! 180 degree difference.

Possible Chase 2/28 or 3/1

Well, a lot can happen but it looks like beginning Wednesday 2/25, the intrusion of cold fronts into the Gulf stops. Much depends on whether a prog’d front Friday will indeed hold up over the southern U.S.

All this means that the following weekend should have a quality supply of gulf moisture into the deep south. This coupled with troughing over the western U.S. means this weekend chase warrior has a chance!

Oklahoma Tornadoes of 2/10/2009

A link to kmz files used by Google Earth displaying the results of the survey done for the February 10 tornadoes in Oklahoma:

Lone Grove

Central Oklahoma

Don't have Google Earth? Go here.

Sunday (2/8) Storm Chase

The weather pattern is looking more favorable with each computer model run for severe storms across the central plains Sunday. But are these storms chaseable?

Meteorologically, the air with this system is not that unstable. Dynamically (wind) it is strong which can and likely will make up for the lack of instability. But for storm chasing, it's all about storm mode, i.e. squall line vs. discrete storms Storm mode is mainly dependent how the winds are stacked up vertically or the shear. The shear for this set up is strongly on the squall line side of things.

Squall lines are not "good chasing". This coupled with an after dark scenerio and the distance involved makes a quality chase unlikely at this time.

Chase Update

Well overall, there might be some potential Sunday for severe storms over the plains (and locally here Monday). One major question for me here in Springfield, MO is the west Texas scenerio and whether I will see enough in the data to make that long drive wih early sunsets. That's one possibilty.

The other is to hope that a closer target like central Oklahoma or Kansas comes into play.

It too early to say yet, still watching!

Chasing Potential

Well, it does look spring-like beginning late in the week and into the weekend. Latest computer models continue to support a trend of moisture return and a western U.S. trough through this period.

I still have to wonder about the details regarding frontal position and shortwaves this far out. I can only head out Sunday and will do so only if it looks good. Maybe a stationary front over the southern Plains and wave development? Western Texas?