Chase of April 9th, 2009

Chase Summary

I hung out in Claremore, OK where I was set to report in our 5 o'clock but couldn't get through to the station although Skype technology was working fine. I decided to head east on Hwy 20 which seemed like a good idea until it stopped being a nice four lane and turned into a twist and wind headache which included a hairpin turn!! Wow, it even had a hand-painted sign which said "Dead Man's Turn" which for a second I laughed at but then lucky decided to take seriously.
I set up for the second live report in our six about 10 miles west of Jay, again had a great shot using Skype and the comedy of errors continued when a mere 10 seconds before I was set to talk to Jill, my laptop when into hibernate! The inverter had been switched off and the battery died.

I DID stumble across a very interesting circulation at 20 and 59 in Jay which I will post in a minute.

The whole chase I was south of the only tornado in NE OK and if I had taken I-44 back home I might have seen it. Oh well.

Add to this forgetting to put a tape in my video camera and not having cash for toll booths and getting back to live tornado warning coverage and it was an interesting chase day.

FYI, live streaming through Severe Studios would work for a few mintues and then crash so I eventually turned it off. But I think these issues can be worked out.

Wow, An Interesting Period 3/7 through 3/13

SMILE (strict model interpretation laughable or eventful) is in full mode here BUT it sure looks like this weekend and early next will be "spring" stormy. The system to follow later in the week looks colder at this point which is all I feel comfortable commenting on for now except to say that it looks wet whatever season it decides to mimic!

Weekend Chase Possible

Although there are some disagreements in the long range models, it does seem possible that severe weathet will occur somewhere in the central U.S. Saturday, Sunday or perhaps both days.

As usual, this time of year, Ilike to see at least a 3-4 day period where the Gulf remains intouched by cold fronts. I thought this was true last week for this past weekend and it ended up the complete opposite (strong northerly wind over the Gulf and nearly a foot of snow in portions of the Ozarks!) so I'm cautiously optimistic this time around!

Lone Grove Tornado Sends Debris Far

An interesting presentation from the Tulsa National Weather Service Office:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tsa/weather-events/briefing_LoneGroveDebris/player.html

CHASE UPDATE - A lesson in the long range!

FYI, I'm a weekend chase warrior for the most part so I'm always optimistic for Saturdays and Sundays.

12z Friday runs show a cold front entering the eastern Gulf on Friday/Saturday. While I'd rather not see that happen, it does appear the trajectories into the southern Plains originate in the Caribbean.

Lee-side cyclogenesis is still progged for Sunday.

Of course all of this is 10 days away and SMILE (strict model interpretation, laughable or eventful) applies!

Update:

O.K. here's the same time as the image above from Monday's 12z run of the GFS. Notice the winds over the western Gulf! 180 degree difference.

Possible Chase 2/28 or 3/1

Well, a lot can happen but it looks like beginning Wednesday 2/25, the intrusion of cold fronts into the Gulf stops. Much depends on whether a prog’d front Friday will indeed hold up over the southern U.S.

All this means that the following weekend should have a quality supply of gulf moisture into the deep south. This coupled with troughing over the western U.S. means this weekend chase warrior has a chance!

Oklahoma Tornadoes of 2/10/2009

A link to kmz files used by Google Earth displaying the results of the survey done for the February 10 tornadoes in Oklahoma:

Lone Grove

Central Oklahoma

Don't have Google Earth? Go here.

Sunday (2/8) Storm Chase

The weather pattern is looking more favorable with each computer model run for severe storms across the central plains Sunday. But are these storms chaseable?

Meteorologically, the air with this system is not that unstable. Dynamically (wind) it is strong which can and likely will make up for the lack of instability. But for storm chasing, it's all about storm mode, i.e. squall line vs. discrete storms Storm mode is mainly dependent how the winds are stacked up vertically or the shear. The shear for this set up is strongly on the squall line side of things.

Squall lines are not "good chasing". This coupled with an after dark scenerio and the distance involved makes a quality chase unlikely at this time.

Chase Update

Well overall, there might be some potential Sunday for severe storms over the plains (and locally here Monday). One major question for me here in Springfield, MO is the west Texas scenerio and whether I will see enough in the data to make that long drive wih early sunsets. That's one possibilty.

The other is to hope that a closer target like central Oklahoma or Kansas comes into play.

It too early to say yet, still watching!

Chasing Potential

Well, it does look spring-like beginning late in the week and into the weekend. Latest computer models continue to support a trend of moisture return and a western U.S. trough through this period.

I still have to wonder about the details regarding frontal position and shortwaves this far out. I can only head out Sunday and will do so only if it looks good. Maybe a stationary front over the southern Plains and wave development? Western Texas?

Blog at Ceaseless Wind

While the Ceaseless Wind web site has great features and things to check out, it does lack the speed and communication of a blog.

So here it is, the Ceaseless Wind Blog. I'll post just about anything weather-related here with a bend toward severe storms and tornadoes.

Please feel free to contribute!

-Ted Keller